That majority of webcomics that die the long, lingering Death of Promises of Updates to Come - let's say, ones that update daily. How long do they generally go before the missed updates start? How long after that do the updates cease, generally?
How long does a new guy have to be at it before experienced readers will realize they can take him seriously?
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So the tough bit's between three and twelve months, eh?
Okay then...we're half way through month number four...I guess this is the time to be face down, arse up and keep this little project moving...
I'm gonna hold you guys to this, you realise! I expect loyal readers after those first twelve months!
Aw, who am I kidding?
Statistics, or Good Guesses, Anyone?
That majority of webcomics that die the long, lingering Death of Promises of Updates to Come - let's say, ones that update daily. How long do they generally go before the missed updates start? How long after that do the updates cease, generally?
How long does a new guy have to be at it before experienced readers will realize they can take him seriously?
There's just no science to this. It's too new. Avalon was a very established web comic before Josh's updating schedule began to seriously hiccup. By now his audience has but given up completely the hope the story will ever be properly ended. All I can gage is that his forum goers kept hope alive for a solid year.
For a new comic a regular schedule is very important. A more established comic can get away with screwy updating, since it has a larger audience that has been reading longer. But until you have a loyal reading base, you don't really have people's trust, and a new comic with a screwy schedule isn't one people usually attach themselves to. But as I said before, there's no science to it and some comics succeed even without a regular schedule.
Saga of the Ram
*edit* I should now note that after typing this I checked in on Avalon, and Josh Philips has bitten the bullet and retired from web comics. The ending he had planned for Avalon is now posting in text format.
If there IS any middle ground, it can be anywhere from 3 months to a year. Before those first three months, everyone (even the "Bigguns") will have had a few bumps and bruises on the ol' schedule if this is their first webcomic. But from 3-12 months is when people either concentrate up their resolve, or crash and burn.
I think some of it deals with the "honeymoon" ending, where people are frustrated by a lack of instant success. There are a lot of creators who make a gamer-style comic vying to be exactly like Penny Arcade, then abandon it when they realize they aren't destined for PA's legacy anytime soon. (Though a comic's end doesn't necessarily translate to failure - sometimes the creator simply satisfied their own curiosity/ambition with webcomics, and don't need to continue.)
Not that I know anything about it b/c I've only been doing this for eight months...but...
I think it depends on what you're in it for.
I have a webcomic b/c it forces me to put my ideas and art out on a regular basis. If I didn't have an audience, I'd never do it. But there's intrinsic motivation there, as well, so even if I lose all my audience, I'll still be doing a webcomic.
Does that makes sense? I dunno.